Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 10.041418 12.410462 15.069166 18.252591 21.938358 26.049192 30.957539
2025-12-14 6.700004 9.690275 13.446207 18.415211 24.714076 32.327874 42.112407
2025-12-21 4.520627 7.506213 11.632499 17.547932 25.586558 35.895757 49.853513
2025-12-28 3.513874 6.556376 11.104248 18.048444 27.994894 41.316515 60.037295
2026-01-04 2.737531 5.716201 10.508750 18.256268 29.877838 46.032072 69.453907
2026-01-11 2.196288 5.102642 10.107913 18.622514 31.918092 50.992834 79.381372
2026-01-18 1.810192 4.654499 9.871442 19.162151 34.189944 56.344963 90.057412
2026-01-25 1.387334 4.006812 9.161277 18.807420 35.002643 59.564038 97.797787
2026-02-01 1.126080 3.617800 8.838027 19.035733 36.705887 64.143085 107.659569
2026-02-08 0.857819 3.118702 8.202381 18.611649 37.269450 66.970244 115.005311
2026-02-15 0.635732 2.646623 7.520307 17.994069 37.417529 69.108044 121.348614
2026-02-22 0.526175 2.444216 7.374405 18.367597 39.279903 74.024793 132.103778
2026-03-01 0.382806 2.082224 6.823004 17.934495 39.797606 76.995498 140.306963
2026-03-08 0.297925 1.872387 6.592755 18.137825 41.504670 82.047543 152.076019
2026-03-15 0.197671 1.526084 5.919146 17.283675 41.137666 83.568428 158.227059
2026-03-22 0.158890 1.416921 5.859527 17.778512 43.382436 89.642931 171.982625
2026-03-29 0.121600 1.281423 5.687341 17.983922 45.059588 94.792247 184.385985
2026-04-05 0.095046 1.179136 5.588432 18.345905 47.066550 100.599321 198.070748
2026-04-12 0.076238 1.105477 5.562040 18.879293 49.453429 107.176369 213.254372
2026-04-19 0.051563 0.949518 5.207949 18.528666 49.957802 110.354310 222.762273
2026-04-26 0.038350 0.865173 5.082648 18.754335 51.694728 115.851405 236.404682
2026-05-03 0.024387 0.736055 4.739135 18.335167 51.987914 118.661956 245.468234
2026-05-10 0.014139 0.610035 4.352050 17.724788 51.793454 120.523024 252.906555